These Odds Are Terrible!

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  • Is this loot box website just as scummy and scammy as it once was?
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    #LootBox #Scam

Comments • 80

  • Greg Salazar
    Greg Salazar  Month ago +104

    A few viewers brought up the resale factor as a way to bring down EV for a particular box, however, accounting for it mathematically would have opened up a can of worms far too complicated to navigate in a video of this stature. You'd need to make assumptions about _how many_ items are refunded and how many are kept. For these EV calculations, I assumed all items would be kept. I could have walked away with every single item I won and continued to play with my remaining balance. Of course HypeDrop's gonna give you a fraction of your earnings back if you decide to sell - and that's another way to "print money" as a commenter put it - but this factor is secondary to the EV of the box at the start of each roll (because, again, you can walk away at any time and keep every prize won). You could argue that it's a worst-case assumption (and I'll give ya that), but it beats accounting for the decision to "keep" or "sell" every item won.

    Also, if I was HypeDrop, I'd skew the odds in such a way that I wouldn't need to assume all players resell won items. Eliminate all uncertainty. Hence why I focused on the deals they're likely making for ultra-cheap game keys.

    • Steam Condenser
      Steam Condenser Month ago

      While it's impossible to calculate without knowing the amount of players who resell boxes, I'd argue that most people running this won't be thinking about reselling keys themselves to G2A or other key resellers, they'd just hit that button that gives them a meagre fraction of the item's value back to them to eek back a little of their spend. It's a risk on their part, but I guarantee it's a risk they're taking given the pathetic sellback values of the lower value items.

    • Magnus Nilsson
      Magnus Nilsson Month ago

      Why do they simply not just adjust the resell price according to how many have resold it.
      Very few people wants duplicates of gamekeys, that's why their resell value is so low.

    • James Fox
      James Fox Month ago

      CONN Artist come in Many forms

    • ZombieBarioth
      ZombieBarioth Month ago

      @Steven Randall
      That's interesting considering the only reason they skirt around the issues causing their shady reputation is that they are purely a platform provider, and therefore "can't be held responsible" for 3rd parties.
      So that suggests that these keys are legit but bought in bulk on the cheap from 3rd-world vendors, just as with many sold by 3rd party sellers.

    • juenger1701
      juenger1701 Month ago

      The sellback not only gives the quick hit of money but it also makes the next "win" of that title that much more profitable since the accounted cost for that instance would be negative having profited off of the buy back already
      Trying for the high value items is going to ensure multiple copies of each game even at the higher EV it's only unprofitable untill a single person draws a duplicate key or a key they just don't want since the model appeals to the less savvy users the idea of reselling the keys independant of the site may never occour to them or be viewed as not worth the trouble

  • Josh Virzi
    Josh Virzi 6 days ago

    I got a 3rd age Druidic wreath on runescape

  • 5160411406 Jimmy sim
    5160411406 Jimmy sim 12 days ago

    resell value between first and the second one is kinda a joke

  • djjolly 037
    djjolly 037 22 days ago

    I feel like Greg could be John greens long lost son

  • Killjoy26
    Killjoy26 23 days ago

    Isn’t this illegal? It’s literally gambling.

  • Mitchell Egemo
    Mitchell Egemo 25 days ago

    He plays Runescape too?!

  • Mark Arnott
    Mark Arnott 26 days ago +1

    A BIRD IN THE HAND🖖IS WORTH 100 FAKE SPINS ONLINE HAA🙊😸😳🧒🤠😂💵💵💵💵💵💵💰💰💰💭

  • Mark Arnott
    Mark Arnott 26 days ago +1

    ITS AN ONLINE POKER SPINNING MACHINE you loose every time 💩💩💩💩👈😡👨‍💻💭👍1 word there $ Cnts

  • RomanNumeral04
    RomanNumeral04 29 days ago

    If anyone bought the keys from grey market vendors (like urscdkey or scdkeys), have you ever experienced windows deactivate after some period of time due to the keys going on the MS's blacklist?

  • Brian Girnus
    Brian Girnus Month ago

    Maybe this video would have done better if you would stop tearing down your fans on twitter

  • Ana E
    Ana E Month ago

    Sitting on expensive inventory, jacking up the price and letting it rot on the shelve for years after it is obsolete; is why i have little sympathy for many brick and mortar computer shops struggling. Those idiots clearly do not even have a BA [or a cursory knowledge of business].

  • TheBrad1300
    TheBrad1300 Month ago

    So i love your channel and i know im super late but you could have given those keys away to your subs on youtube or something instead of just throwing everything you put in away.

  • Aroop Roelofs
    Aroop Roelofs Month ago

    Me: "I want to stay fair to people and help them to make their lifes a bit better"
    also me: "I could have been rich by now if I was less of a nice guy..."

  • Aroop Roelofs
    Aroop Roelofs Month ago

    We have a similar thing in The Netherlands too...
    You have, for example, the "Apple Box", which lists a lot of expensive ass Apple products but also just junk that doesn't have anything to do with Apple (let alone tech) like hair conditioners, lip balms etc.

  • Fabius Maximus Cunctator

    Spend the money on Fifa Ultimate Team 20 packs instead 🤣🤣🤣

  • Tina Zill
    Tina Zill Month ago

    If you ever do another video on this why not actually take a physical product you win and see if it ever arrives. Wouldn’t trust them tbh

  • Budget Gamerz
    Budget Gamerz Month ago

    Nice video

  • Zachary Redmon
    Zachary Redmon Month ago

    Sell the game keys on g2a. youll profit per box

  • Elysian Aura
    Elysian Aura Month ago

    Shit, all you're telling me is I should gamble on these then since I've gotten 3rd age ranger legs before

  • Rikuri
    Rikuri Month ago

    well I would say that the bigest Money maker is the buy back feature

  • Septlaxer Gaming
    Septlaxer Gaming Month ago

    The other side is the refund option that you took - you sold it back to them for more money to gamble more and in doing so increased your chances of losing more money.

  • Invidious Ignoramus

    It is real OSRS hours

  • JH
    JH Month ago

    I love how, without fail, the item to the very left or right of your item was always worth several hundred or even thousands of dollars.

  • Tristan g
    Tristan g Month ago

    Check out this system offer on CL, seattle.craigslist.org/sno/sys/d/marysville-high-end-gaming-computer/7080710100.html

  • loloioi
    loloioi Month ago

    Ooooo.... They might be using a Bayesian model to off set the chances of winning things. For example, the arcade games are rigged to favor the owner's odds of making profitability. Time to take out the good ol' induction (jk, it'll probably take forever to solve and a shit ton of money to even gather enough data).
    IF they really want to expose how "FAIR" they do the odds of these boxes, make the source code open sourced or public / transparent for everyone to see. Even then, I wouldn't buy these boxes because over long term statistics, you end up near 0% probability of winning anything. So, in short, you are very likely to lose a shit ton of money long term. Short term, it still isn't worth because your odds of losing money off game keys. These game keys can be bought in bulk through other means too.

  • Stavsen
    Stavsen Month ago

    4:02 but thats how provably fair works. They cant give you the unencrypted server seed before you play because then you would be able to predetermine the result. The system is only supposed to give you a way of proving afterwards that your reward was indeed picked randomly at the odds they display. It would be impossible for them to fix the odds when your custom client seed has an impact on the result. Its common practice to have such a system on many poker sites as well, nothing shady about it.

  • David K Noble
    David K Noble Month ago

    I decided to put $20 on there and got a logitech g433

  • Original DK
    Original DK Month ago

    Never got a third age item but I got a blood dye last week which is worth a loot more

  • Louis Burley
    Louis Burley Month ago

    Hey Greg, love the content, but I'm curious what lens are you filming with?

  • Laszlo
    Laszlo Month ago

    Don't forget that they make extra money from people selling stuff back to them when they get something they don't want. This could even happen on higher value items.

  • Philip Tsvetanov
    Philip Tsvetanov Month ago

    THAT 3RD AGE ARMOR JOKE OMG YES

  • Jordan Brokaw
    Jordan Brokaw Month ago

    runescape yessss!

  • adminofutube123
    adminofutube123 Month ago +1

    Well if the website is getting the game codes for dirt cheap and claiming the game is worth 5 dollars they are still breaking the law for false advertising. The company should actually be takedown and be audited....

  • Ryan Harris
    Ryan Harris Month ago

    This was a cool video, exciting and different for u. Maybe blow some money til u win something significant and see what it takes to get it.

  • Michael Oliver
    Michael Oliver Month ago

    watched for Runescape thumbnail, clicked off after it was done. was not disappointed.

  • linus drop tips
    linus drop tips Month ago

    funny thing is i won a ryzen 7 2700x and said aight im done for today

  • EightSix
    EightSix Month ago

    awesome video!

  • Chicken Dinner Gamer

    Can HypeDrop just get removed and the creator taken to Alcatraz island already?

  • Chicken Dinner Gamer

    These odds are worst than getting a SSR in FGO! Not worth.

  • Stevey TeeVee
    Stevey TeeVee Month ago

    Yeah, just save up and get what you want.

  • EPIC JO
    EPIC JO Month ago

    That's what scares me about lootboxes, especially in CSGO. Gambling sites can all be rigged, but case opening websites are by far the worst, because house edge can be as big as the owner wants. Roulette websites are the least scummy imo because even if the roulette can be rigged for a certain user, as long as everyone is playing the same roulette "table" (it rolls the same thing for everyone in the game) there's no way to profit off everyone, but in case opening websites (loot boxes), the website could display fake odds, pretend they have high tier items they dont, detect someone is doing too good and make their odds worst so that they start losing if they keep playing, etc. I hate online gambling but loot boxes take the prize for worst ones BY FAR in my opinion. And what sucks is that people keep using them.

  • TheOneCode
    TheOneCode Month ago +1

    You've convinced me to make one.

  • FastWart
    FastWart Month ago +1

    0:32 when you have 60hz monitor

  • MeefBeef
    MeefBeef Month ago

    I’ve never heard anyone say “supposably” before, even though I’ve seen many a person say that they go mad when people say it.

  • luk20000
    luk20000 Month ago

    only clicked due to the third age.

  • Jagielski Gaming
    Jagielski Gaming Month ago

    r/unexpectedrunescape

  • fearofchicken
    fearofchicken Month ago

    Should’ve used subway gift cards.

  • Senpai
    Senpai Month ago +1

    I have been playing runescape since 2005 not once have I gotten a 3rd age item.

  • Saikiran J
    Saikiran J Month ago

    reflection 😬

  • damianb
    damianb Month ago

    I’m not here to be on the other side. But if you don’t have the simple concept of understanding that it’s made to give you something for your money. Well you shouldn’t be using website just like those. Can’t really call it a scam unless they actually take your money without giving you what the advertise in return. Which would be something in a box you open. People call these a scam because you not supposed to make a profit.

  • Jonathan Sullivan
    Jonathan Sullivan Month ago

    I've bought a ton of keys from G2A over the years and have never had any issues. You just have to buy to from top seller's. I tend to buy from the same top sellers.

  • LEGACYBTW
    LEGACYBTW Month ago

    OH MY GOD THE RNESCAPE REFERENCE
    OH MY GOD
    YSS

  • lol
    lol Month ago

    Gambling sites are the actual trash of sponsors, never will watch a content creator sponsored by one. I'll go to the casino to eat the dirt if I want to

  • Patrick Jones
    Patrick Jones Month ago

    This sounds like playing the lottery... Spoiler alert playing any kind of lottery is a scam.

  • Bob
    Bob Month ago

    incase anyone was wondering ive just done the maths for the box and it gives a 89% return on the money you put in if you sell everything for current cheapest market value in the uk

  • Marco
    Marco Month ago +1

    The odds of getting a great Greg Salazar video are great!

  • pyrophobia133
    pyrophobia133 Month ago

    I won a Barrows dye from a clue scroll, does that count?

  • shane pearce
    shane pearce Month ago

    if you are after content for a video look at ebay sales in australia 20% off but before the sales the prices seem to go up 30% or more

  • John Knight III
    John Knight III Month ago

    The values don't need to be lies for them to be profitable. They make their money from people "selling back" their items at huge discounts to try to get something they want. That is also where the addiction comes in.

  • gangstahwezel
    gangstahwezel Month ago

    This is litterally the real life stuff version of the shady CSGO lootbox sites from a few years ago. looking from the stuff they claim and the 'game mechanics' its even by the same people

  • Addison Miele
    Addison Miele Month ago

    lol i have a full set of 3rd age on my uim

  • yrly59e
    yrly59e Month ago

    It’s not just the EV. Sure they’re paying less for those game keys but they’re banking on the end user paying $5 getting oh so close to that processor, getting a game key, trading it in for $.60 and repeating the process. They’re playing on the gambler’s fallacy/law of averages where as you’d think after a losing streak you’d be more likely to win.

  • invrplayedb4
    invrplayedb4 Month ago

    I'm here for the full 3rd age melee

  • kewitt
    kewitt Month ago

    The Ev is below 5 because people take 4.30 loss over and over hoping for 5% role.

  • Et Malleo Semper Vicit

    i give better odds for my death rolling scheme in Ironforge.

  • Austin Hibdon
    Austin Hibdon Month ago

    I think that 69 cents you get back for the key is closer to the price they pay than $5.

  • Reality check
    Reality check Month ago

    someone laughing hard on you is all fixed no chance here .... as almost nowhere people can even tell you they been to the moon if u naive enough

  • Babyfarkmcgeesax
    Babyfarkmcgeesax Month ago

    Wow , I don't care at all about the loot box thing, but this was a fascinating, intelligent, and really good video' thoroughly enjoyed this

  • Dylan Smith
    Dylan Smith Month ago

    >runescape 3 character in the thumbnail.
    Fuckin noob. OSRS or nothing.

  • Nico Dalumpines
    Nico Dalumpines Month ago

    Loved the RS reference. This is why I love this channel!

  • Henk Slavink
    Henk Slavink Month ago +1

    I got a gilded 2h, is that good enough?

  • illuminati
    illuminati Month ago

    I have had 2 Third-Age items over the years.
    Before the GE came to the game I got a Third-Age Kiteshield and on Juli 18 last year the Third-Age Mage Hat.
    Mind you I have completed a ton of clues over the years.

  • Sponsi
    Sponsi Month ago

    Maybe the website was created by a joint venture of those guys that overprice their rigs on ebay? : )

  • Antonio Esparza-Silva

    I have to admit I clicked this vid cause I saw 3rd age in Gregs' channel.

  • Mr. Torgue
    Mr. Torgue Month ago

    How do they make money? Well you spent 100$ on a 5$ Key that's how, gambling is an addiction and expecting people to keep that stuff instead of re-rolling their chances is like expecting world peace in 2020.

  • Giovanni P.
    Giovanni P. Month ago

    It is just gambling in a a casino. The house always wins.
    The buy back is what isn't factored in. It is fiat currency until you have it physically in your hand.

  • Der Fliegende Mocca

    Basically if you want to use a site like this i offer three better ways to gamble:
    - Get piss drunk for 10€, charge your paypal up with 50€ and browse ebay and let yourself surprise with what you ended up with.
    - withdraw 50-60€, go to a casino / lottery machine, go all in. If you lose everything, ask in a forum for a dirt rallye key (lol, i think i still got like 3 from different bundles), if you win get the part you wand and need.
    - get the part you need for dirt cheap off ebay used condition. chances are it is broken, chances are it is fixable. but 100% of the time you are getting something, and there is a not so bad chance you can actually make it work. take a cpu: worst case, open it up, look at it, clean it with alcohol, clean all the contacts... maybe you repaired it, good job, and you got a 300€ cpu for like 50€. maybe it doesnt. but you wont need to buy like 100 used cpus to assume you can make at least one of them run...

  • ZPERO
    ZPERO Month ago +2

    I'd rather go to a real Casino.
    I went to a Casino once knowing fully well I was gonna walk out of the building without the 100€ that I had when I walked in. But I *knew* this not because I am a pessimist (or a realist in this case) but because that was my *intention*.
    I knew the business is theirs and not mine, and I never expected to win anything. But in my eyes, I spend 100€ on what I saw as a "ticket" to a really cool and expensive looking building, with excellent food and service, drinks, a fun ambient, and lots of cool games that were fun to lose at.
    I didn't *bet* 100€ because I was never going to walk out until I was completely out of money. In fact I actually started out winning small amounts here and there, but simply kept playing until all my money was spent. It was fun.
    But these virtual loot boxes are just scams. At least in a casino you can go with family or friends, have dinner and drinks and have a fun night. With these "loot boxes" you're just clicking a button on a website and losing money. You're not getting anything, not even a fun experience. These companies are basically preying on your optimism and desire to win (which fair enough, casinos also do that) but then they're not even offering you any sort of reward or fun experience. You just click a button and send them some of your money every time.

  • Sharky
    Sharky Month ago +1

    Likely chance they rigged the first spin to hook people by giving them a win right away and shows you that you can win... on the first spin... Which is a typical psychological trick. Winning on the first spin gives me HUGE red flags on the legitimacy of the loot box. Especially when followed by nothing but losses. They'll give you enough wins to keep you going through algorithms.

  • George M
    George M Month ago

    I got third age vambraces once years ago, but they were worthless due to the EoC update, despite their rarity :/.